2017 Season Recap  

The Michigan Wolverines began the 2016-17 season 5-0 with impressive wins over NCAA Tournament teams, SMU and Marquette. They then traveled to Columbia, South Carolina where they lost their first game of the season to South Carolina—who would later play the role of the underdog in the NCAA Tournament, making it to the final four as a seven seed. The Wolverines went 6-2 over the course of their next eight games, entering Big Ten play at 11-3. In their first 14 games, Michigan had far out-performed expectations, flashing brilliance on both offense and defense, as big men D.J. Wilson and Moritz Wagner, both first time starters, emerged as stars.

The remainder of the Wolverines’ Big Ten season was a rollercoaster as the team took on a greatly contrasting, yet all too familiar persona. They lost three of their first four games in conference play, highlighted by a horrific double digit loss to Illinois. While the loss signified the team’s lowest point of the season, it also spurred an energized turnaround. After the loss, Illinois center, Maverick Morgan took shots at the disgruntled Michigan team calling them “more of a white-collar team traditionally.” Instead of rolling over, the team used Morgan’s words as motivation for the home stretch. Senior point guard, and floor general, Derrick Walton Jr. took it to heart, raising his own play and that of those around him.

With Walton Jr.’s newfound leadership and intensity along with his across-the-board statistical improvements, the Wolverines began to right the ship. They continued on to win nine of 14 games to finish the season, with inspiring wins against 11th ranked Wisconsin, 14th ranked Purdue, and rival Michigan State. However, due to their mid-season struggles, the Wolverines landed the eighth seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Yet, despite the low seed, they were right where they wanted to be: a rematch with Illinois.

Prior to the matchup, during the Wolverines’ trip to Washington D.C., the team plane skidded off the runway. The team chose to continue the journey however and the team arrived in D.C. only several hours before the game, with no uniforms aside from their well worn practice jerseys. Despite their lack of rest and the trauma of the previous day’s events still haunting them, the Wolverines stomped the fighting Illini’ and proceeded to take on Purdue.    

While many expected the Wolverines would come up short in their rematch with the number one seeded Boilermakers, Michigan continued their unforeseen run as they squeaked past, winning 74-70 in overtime. No longer the underdogs, Michigan’s momentum continued, pushing them over Minnesota where they then awaited Wisconsin in the Big Ten Title Game. Now the favorites, the Wolverines lived up to the hype, routing the Badgers 71-56. Four games in four days as an eighth seed as the Wolverines’ brought home the Big Ten Title. Their journey was not over.   

Entering the NCAA Tournament as one of the league’s hottest teams, the Wolverines continued their cinderella run. In their first round matchup, Michigan met the highflying Oklahoma State Cowboys who boasted the nation’s most efficient offense. It delivered on it’s promise of being an offensive shootout as Michigan’s three point barrage helped them breakaway in the second half as they took down the Cowboys 92-91.

The Wolverines’ hot shooting did not however continue in their second round matchup vs. Louisville. Early on, Louisville’s size and athleticism stifled the Wolverines’ usually potent offensive attack. Despite the clear advantage however, Louisville’s lead never became insurmountable as the Wolverines stuck around with strong play from center Moritz Wagner. What started as an impressive performance for Wagner soon became a career performance as he showcased an arsenal of post moves, doing it all for the Wolverines. Behind his career night and their reliable upperclassmen guards, Michigan battled back, taking the lead in the final seconds before advancing to the sweet sixteen, winning 73-69.

The Wolverines incredible run eventually came to an end as they faced the red hot Oregon Ducks in the next round. Michigan’s offense continued its struggles, but yet again strong play from their stars kept them within reach. This time however, their luck ran out as Derrick Walton Jr.’s final collegiate shot, a potential game winner, clanked off the rim as the Wolverines fell 68-69 and put their magical season to bed.

2017 Recruiting Class

  The national ranking of the Wolverines’ 2017 recruiting class weighs heavily on the commitment decision of 5-star, all-american center, Mohamed Bamba. Bamba is currently considering Michigan along with Kentucky, Duke, and Texas, but is expected to pick either Duke or Kentucky. Although the Wolverines incoming class would be significantly supplemented with the addition of Bamba, the three current commits more than meet the Wolverines’ class standards.

Headlining the incoming class is Kalamazoo-native Isaiah Livers, winner of Michigan’s 2017 Mr. Basketball award. Livers is a versatile scorer and ball-handler at the forward position and flashes unique skills and athleticism for his size. He can stretch the floor on offense and defend multiple positions on the defensive end, and will surely be popular as a michigan native.    

Rounding out the incoming class are 4-star shooting guard, Jordan Poole, and three-star point guard, Eli Brooks. Poole is a lethal shooter from beyond the arc and is sure to dismantle defenses with his combination of scoring and playmaking. With some minor defensive improvements and an expansion of his game on the offensive end, Poole could prove to be a spark plug off the bench for the Wolverines.

Eli Brooks, although only a three-star recruit, has generated just as much buzz as his fellow recruits. The Spring Grove native had offers from several schools including the 2017 number one seeded Villanova Wildcats, yet ultimately chose to continue his basketball career at Michigan. Given Derrick Walton Jr.’s departure, Brooks could get some looks as Michigan’s backup point guard this year if he impresses. Standing at 6’1 with an excellent vertical, he possesses size and athleticism at the point guard position that Michigan hasn’t seen since Darius Morris.

Positional Previews

Point Guard

After a discouraging first two seasons at Michigan, Walton turned his career around and became not only the team’s star player, but a fan favorite, carrying his squad to new heights in March. What looked like a weak spot for the Wolverines entering the offseason now looks promising with the addition of Ohio grad transfer, Jaaron Simmons. After beginning his career at Houston, Simmons transferred to Ohio University where he shouldered a tremendous workload as he led the Bobcats to two successful seasons.

Despite his through-the-roof usage, Simmons still turned out an elite assist rate. He thrives in the pick and roll due to his uncanny finishing ability at 6’1. Most of his assists came from the pick and roll as he excelled at finding open shooters on the wings, an aspect of his game that will surely shine through in the Wolverine’s high octane, perimeter based, offensive attack.

Many thought Xavier Simpson would take over the lead guard duties in his second year, however that looks to have changed with the Simmons transfer. His veteran experience and leadership qualities will most likely give him the advantage over the youthful Simpson. That being said, Simpson could still be a key contributor for the Wolverines next season in a backup role and expand on his success late in his freshman campaign.     

Despite his lack of height—standing at no more than 5’11 while listed at six foot—he possesses excellent tools and intensity of the defensive end that should be an upgrade over the other Michigan point guards. On the offensive end, Simpson’s erratic jump shot held his offensive numbers in check for the majority of last year. However, given Beilein’s track record as a shooting coach, Simpson could show vast improvement next season after a long summer of development.

  Despite his shooting woes, he did however display potential as a finisher around the rim. Known for his outrageous scoring outbreaks in high school, Simpson showcased some of those skills with several extraordinary finishes in traffic in the faces of looming rim protectors. In addition, he excels in the pick and roll, using unique angles to get his big men the ball when not taking it to the rack himself.

  Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman could slide over from shooting guard and handle the offensive load at times next season as well. Although Eli Brooks could still see some time this season as well, Simmon’s addition hurts his chances of being a meaningful contributor as a freshman.   

Shooting Guard

Shooting guard, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman will be returning for his senior campaign, and will surely play a more pivotal role for the Wolverines in 2017-18. Abdur-Rahkman started 37 of 38 games during the 2016-17 season and was a perfect fit as Derrick Walton Jr.’s supporting guard in the starting line up. Although he played a more conservative, lower-usage role last season, Walton’s departure should propel Abdur-Rahkman into an increased leadership role as the lone upperclassman guard. His offensive production could take a monstrous leap in 2018 with his newfound three point shot and a likely minute per game increase into the high 30’s.

 Similarly to the opposing guard spot, Michigan’s backup shooting guard is far from set in stone. Three point marksman, Duncan Robinson could see some minutes at both the shooting guard and small forward positions in his senior season. Although more likely a small forward in 2017-18, Robinson’s deadly perimeter shot and 6’8 frame could be advantageous in spot minutes at the two guard.

Due to Abdur-Rahkman’s likely minute jump, the Wolverines’ guard depth shouldn’t need to be outstanding. After a disappointing freshman campaign, Ibi Watson could be a candidate for backup minutes with a second year jump. The three point specialist went 1/18 from beyond the arc in limited appearances last season and was completely washed out of the rotation by Big Ten season. Even with improved shooting numbers, the Pickerington, OH, native will need to make a defensive improvement and increase in his overall production to see the hardwood in 2017-18.   

Freshman Jordan Poole is in a similar position to Watson. While an impactful freshman year is not out of the question for Poole, he seems destined for a Watson-like freshman year. Similars concerns such as lack of offensive versatility and defensive capabilities will be his downfall if his season turns out to be more of a redshirt year.

Small Forward

The small forward position bears perhaps the Wolverines’ biggest X-factor in Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews. He appeared in every game for Kentucky in his lone season, but ultimately decided to take his talents to Ann Arbor in hopes of diversifying his offensive arsenal. His elite athleticism—that of which Michigan has not housed on the wing since Glenn Robinson III—could more than make up for the production lost with the graduation of Zak Irvin.

Offensively, Matthews flashed great slashing skills, a post up game, and several magnificent, above the rim finishes in his limited showings. His shot still has some way to go, but he is certainly in the right place to improve it. Matthews should be on the right track to improving his offensive game after spending the last year in the U of M facilities under the tutelage of John Beilein. Defensively, Matthews has the potential to lock down guards and smaller wings on the perimeter, while still holding his own in the paint. If and when Matthew’s shot can progress to the next level, Michigan could have an elite two way weapon waiting in the wings ready to take over the Ann Arbor basketball scene.

If Matthews can live up to the hype, Michigan shouldn’t need many backup minutes at the position. However, if he disappoints and shoulders less of a workload, the Wolverines could use a reliable spark plug on the wing. Either way, they should be covered with Duncan Robinson.

In the last two seasons since his transfer into the program, Robinson has shot lights out from deep and has been undoubtedly the team’s most most dangerous shooter. Although lacking an all-around game on offense he has made notable progression in his handling and finishing skills and could take another jump this season. Defense was also an area of concern for Robinson in 2016. He showed progress on that end as well, making several adept plays in new defensive coordinator, Billy Donlan’s system. Robinson’s size plays to his advantage as he should play several positions for the Wolverines’ in 2017-18 season.

Power Forward

Coming into the 2016 season, D.J. Wilson wasn’t projected to start, however he got an early look starting several games in non-conference season. He impressed, becoming the Wolverines’ defensive anchor while displaying his above-the-rim athleticism on the offensive end. Wilson didn’t look back as he started all 38 games in the 2016-17 season.

Unfortunately for Michigan fans, Wilson turned some heads with his big performances against multiple upper echelon teams and is now projected to be picked late in the first round. He recently declared for the draft, but did not hire an agent so he still possesses the option to return to school should he not like where his draft stock is headed.

If Wilson leaves, the Wolverine’s starting power forward spot will be a question mark. Talented incoming freshman, Isaiah Livers could start, but most likely wouldn’t due to his inexperience and his size disadvantage, standing at 6’8, two inches shorter than Wilson. On top of that, he has yet to fully develop his body into that of a more prototypical collegiate forward.

The more likely scenario is that Michigan would rotate a combination of players at the forward position, depending on their needs. Duncan Robinson’s knockdown shot can stretch the floor and extend defenses, making him a smart offensive option to space out the hardwood for the Wolverines. Although Michigan would lose size and defense, Matthews and Livers could play spot minutes at the power forward position as well, giving the Wolverines an offensive uptick.

Another scenario that could play out would be if Moritz Wagner shifts to the forward position and the towering seven foot sophomore, Jon Teske slides into the starting lineup at center. This may be the most effective setup as Wagner’s offensive talents and Teske’s defensive upside could complement each other nicely.  

If Wilson does however decide to return, he will be a no-brainer to start, and the Wolverines depth would stay intact. As previously mentioned, the combo of Robinson and Livers would most likely play backup, although Wilson’s intense minute load requires little backup.

Center

Assuming Moritz Wagner returns due to his low ranking on most NBA draft boards, Michigan could again rely on their frontcourt to lead the Wolverines to success. Wagner—a rare talent with a unique offensive skillset, who can score inside, banging down low in the post, and step back, hitting long jumpers—could have a Big Ten Player of the Year-caliber season after his breakout campaign in 2016-17. Despite his offensive prowess, defense is where Wagner will likely need to place his focus this upcoming season.

Although Wagner possesses all the physical tools to excel as a rim protector, he lacks some natural instincts and his defensive IQ and tendency to foul, crippled him at times last season. He makes wrong reads on pick and rolls, messes up rotations, and sometimes struggles to be a factor on the glass (averaging only 4.2 rebounds in 24 minutes per game). Similar to several of his Wolverine teammates, Wagner could be in for a career best year with a marked improvement on defense. He looks to be not only one of Michigan’s best players, but one of the Big Ten’s biggest stars in 2017-18.

Behind Wagner, or in his place—if he decides to forgo his eligibility and enter the NBA Draft—will be sophomore, Jon Teske. Teske played sparingly in 2016, but saw increased minutes down the stretch in 2016, similar to fellow freshman Xavier Simpson. His true 7’0 height, absurd wingspan, and long frame immediately standout. Although still quite raw, Teske’s defensive upside and clear advantage on the boards act as his calling card early in his young career.    

Many believe that all-American center, Mohamed Bamba’s decision relies heavily upon whether one or both of D.J. Wilson and Moritz Wagner return. Regardless of who stays and who departs, if Bamba chooses the Wolverines his will be an instant impact player on the front line. His sensational defensive abilities make him an excellent fit beside Wagner, and his similar offensive versatility could help Michigan stay in contention if Bamba takes over Wagner’s spot.

2017-18 Season Outlook

After an expectation-shattering year, the Wolverines could just be getting started. With the additions of Charles Matthews and Jaaron Simmons, Michigan is ready to reload, not rebuild. Moritz Wagner will likely return and D.J. Wilson may also give it another shot, playing out his senior campaign. A fully loaded Michigan roster could wreak havoc upon the Big Ten in 2017-18.

Walton’s elite play to finish out last season and his immense leadership will surely be missed, however his departure opens the door for the next great Michigan guard, and a new heart and soul for the Wolverines. Will Charles Matthews live up to the hype, making Michigan a force in the paint? Will Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman seize a leadership role and finish out his career on a high note? Will Wilson depart, leaving a spot for Mohamed Bamba?

Several questions await an answer, but if circumstances break right, Michigan could be one of the nation’s most versatile teams. Look for the Wolverines to place as high as top three in their conference and to enter the NCAA Tournament again, this time, not as the underdogs.